Authors: Ateka Hasan, Hriti Parekh, Mehar Pandya, Anusha Kaul

INTRODUCTION

There has been a growing discussion between many scholars that the world politics is going through a major shift. The hegemonic position enjoyed by the United States of America is under growing threat from several states which are experiencing an expansion of their culture, politics, economy,security or military globally.The development of the Soft Power and Hard Power of these states plays a vital role in the growing imbalance in the International Society. Many argue that Asia is becoming the ‘epicentre of international affairs’, and some have even gone to the extent of claiming that Asia will become the ‘cockpit of global affairs’[i]. Within Asia, East Asia is one region which has witnessed great development and managed to come into close competition (the competition of power and the competition for influence) with the rest of the world. Over the past few decades, the region has experienced a dynamic transformation.In the past 70 years, it transformed into one of the most vibrant, exciting and rapidly developing region of the globe[ii]. Majority of the countries in the region have witnessed great strides in their Political, economic, Social and Security/Military sectors.China stands out within the region for its long-term strategic functioning in these very sectors, because of which its influence has been observed to be on the rise. Its rise is heavily being perceived as a threat to the western powers particularly the US.  Similarly, other countries like, South Korea is also being recognized for its magnified presence globally, particularly in the social and cultural sectors. These factors, along with several others point towards this sudden flux in the world order, where the Western powers, specifically the US is witnessing a relative decline in its influence which it had held for all these years. While these diverse influences do not guarantee a completely new era of world politics, but they do showcase a world with more powers competing the dominant United States of America.

To understand the shift that this region has led to in the international system, the paper aims to analyse the countries (within East Asia) and their growing influence in four domains, mainly:

  1. Political
  2. Economic
  3. Social
  4. Security/ Military

POLITICAL INFLUENCE

“Change does not just happen. It is not merely an accident of history, a random or arbitrary event. Rather, it is the product of decisions, both big and small, made by individuals, individual societies, and individual states. Similarly, change especially large-scale political, social, and economic change does not occur in a vacuum. What happens, say, in South Korea reflects not only the decisions made by Koreans, but also, and perhaps even more important, decisions made by other national, international, and transnational actors. In addition, change is almost certainly influenced, even partly determined, by powerful structural forces and underlying global processes, some of which may be invisible to the casual observer”[iii]

When politics is treated as a subject of analysis, it is usually treated as a background which enabled the particular pattern of economic development in the region. Thus, while we are inundated with the discussions of the East Asian political economy, these are basically concerned with economy and culture, leaving politics as only a secondary concern. There is a striking lack of political concern about East Asian politics which, we believe, often decides the direction of economic change and cultural development in the countries. East Asian Politics has mostly been approached from the perspective of either political economy or political culture, which leaves the study of East Asian political systems highly underdeveloped. This paper provides a historical interpretation of the rise of East Asian political systems, transitions, their growing influence and potential prospects.

  • Common Characteristics of East Asian Political Systems

For the sake of parsimony, two main characteristics of East Asian political regimes are listed here, that is, the unipolar existence of political power and the paternalistic state ties. The former represents the “hardware,” the bureaucratic side of the political structure in East Asia, while the latter is to be called its “software,” which relates to the culture. These two aspects affect each other making the whole system work in “Asian Ways”. In East Asian countries political power has been more or less concentrated in the centres of unitary power. Thus, borrowing from the field of international relations, we might call them unipolar East Asian political systems. Eastern Asian power’s unipolar existence is preserved not only within the ruling bloc but also between the state and population. With the consolidation of power within their new institutions, East Asian states have succeeded in governing and maintaining an underdeveloped and fractured civilian population. This contrasts with the conventional state-society relationships in East Asia, where both state and society were fairly stagnant and the power of the state over society was much less extensive. In the communist system of China and North Korea, power is concentrated in a monolithic party which is closely inter- woven with the state, jointly dominating and controlling the still dormant civil society.

In capitalist Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the state took a leading role in carrying out economic development programs rendering the concept of developmental state, a powerful analytical tool for explaining the political economy of these countries.[iv]

Despite differing nature of political systems, East Asia shows some common characteristics of power concentration within a small group of power-holders. In order to understand the changing politics in East Asia and the growing influence of East Asian politics, We’ll be studying the cases of political changes and the growing political influence in some of the important East Asian Countries:

  1. The Metamorphosis of Japanese Politics

Japan today is a secure, wealthy, and peaceful democracy. But not always has this been the case. From the beginning of the Meiji Restoration (1868–1912) to the end of World War II, and in spite of a short-lived experiment with restricted democracy (which emerged during the Taisho period, 1912–1926) Japan was governed by distinctly unliberal and non-democratic political regimes. Moreover, Japan’s foreign policy was strongly militaristic and ambitious in the pre-World War II period, as the country used its economic force first to subjugate its East Asian neighbours (Korea, Taiwan, and Manchuria) and later to challenge Western imperial supremacy. Since 1945, by contrast, Japan has embraced an almost pacifistic stance towards the outside world.

Japan’s pre-war industrial development had marked a significant economic turn. The world was trapped into a quasi-feudal regime, based on a self-sufficient and distinctly non-industrial economic foundation, for centuries during the Tokugawa period, and before. As William W. Lockwood (1968), a noted academic who was Research Secretary (1935-1940) and Executive Secretary (1941-1943) at the Institute of Pacific Relations, states, Japan has existed at a level of economic growth barely more developed than Western Europe in the late Middle Ages as recently as the early nineteenth century. The vast majority of her 28 to 30 million inhabitants were unfree and poverty-stricken peasants. They lived mainly in rural villages which were self-sufficient. The economic base and principal source of capital was the cultivation of rice, carried on by primitive methods little changed over the centuries” .With the beginning of the Meiji era, however, “there set in a feverish process of modernization”, which laid the groundwork for a highly industrial and commercialized economy that would eventually compete with the most advanced Western economies of the time although, as Lockwood carefully points out, the process of modernization was more gradual and spatially limited than is generally assumed. Nonetheless, by the early twentieth century, Japan had achieved a major economic transformation.

  • Growing Influence and Potential Prospects

Japan is especially serious about raising its soft power, the opportunity to win over foreign allies with cultural and political solidarity rather than intimidation and sheer heft. Tokyo has long been busy creating a national ‘name,’ an identity that blends the supposed beauty of Japanese literature, food and traditional hospitality with its post-war pacifism and modern prestige. The new version of this project is the “Cool Japan” Program, which is capitalizing on Manga’s international success and Anime to project the Japanese brand worldwide. In spite of that, the much-touted policy revitalisation plan of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, known as Abenomics, a deeply domestic policy of constitutional reforms, fiscal reform and economic modernization in its first manifestation was the “Beautiful Country” Program, the flagship of Abe’s first term in 2006-’07. But it was not just an economic programme; it was also a nationalistic one, intended to turn domestic economic reconstruction into an international show. He strongly assumes that economic revitalization and a revived military are necessary to increase Japan’s self-confidence and political influence across the globe.

With these points in mind, one could definitely say that Japan with its growing soft power and economic revitalization has become a hub of human resource and an important influence in the politics of the world. It is not only known for its glorious culture and nationalistic profiles but for its huge developments in technology and science. It won’t be surprising to see Japan topping all the lists when it comes to development of human resource.

  1. South Korea and Taiwan: Political transition and Growing Influence

Progress in South Korea and Taiwan has become much more drastic in both diplomatic and economic terms, in certain ways. Politically, for instance, both countries arose from decades of colonial rule only to be entangled in a prolonged and long-lived post-war conflict between the former Soviet Union and the United States or, more generally, between the communist world and the West. In Korea’s case, this conflict culminated in the country’s sharp split into two highly aggressive regimes the pro-U.S. Republic of Korea (later South Korea) and the pro-Soviet Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (later North Korea). The change or transformation that has garnered the most attention for South Korea and Taiwan has been in the realm of economics (or, more accurately, political economy). In the 1950s, both countries were desperately and seemingly irredeemably poor: they were quintessential third world countries with per capita incomes comparable to or below most other countries in the world. Yet, in a little less than one generation, Taiwan and South Korea had caught up with or surpassed all the aforementioned countries. More than sheer economic growth, however, both South Korea and Taiwan also developed a strong degree of domestically based technological and industrial capacity, which is reflected in their ability to compete head-to-head against the most advanced and largest Western corporations.

Significantly, too, rapid economic development in both countries also seemed to lead to another major political transformation: by the late 1980s, the two countries were well on their way towards the establishment of sturdy albeit far from perfect democratic political systems. In many respects, the transformation of South Korea and Taiwan into “full-fledged democracies” is as remarkable as their economic ascendances. For in both cases, the timing of the transition was unexpected and, more significantly, unexpectedly smooth.[v]

Keeping these points in mind, We can say that with the increase in development and the changes brought in the political regime, South Korea and Taiwan are becoming new hubs of trade and technology and are growing to become relatively new yet powerful centres of Global Politics.

III. The China Boom

After the 1990s, China has become one of the fastest-growing, most diverse capitalist economies. The magnitude of this transition is hard to quantify, unlike its counterparts in East Asia, China is a nation of enormous proportions: its population of over 1.3 billion people is the highest in the world and accounts for nearly 20 percent of the inhabitants of the Planet. China, in terms of its total GDP, is now a tremendously powerful economy. No one, however, can guarantee the continued potential of China to replicate its impressive record of economic development. In fact, in the 1980s, many academics expected Japan would surpass the United States, but it did not do so because of long-standing economic problems in Japan that started in the early 1990s. Still, China’s sheer scale means that its sustained growth will cause transition in the rest of Asia and the globe, even if that growth slows dramatically.

  • Future of China’s Political System

Despite China’s adoption of economic and market values, an oppressive, distinctly non-democratic, and technically communist political system still governs China. In view of the political changes undergone by its East Asian neighbours, the continuing economic reform of China poses a host of important questions: does rapid bourgeois growth in China inevitably contribute to substantial democratic transition, i.e., democratization? Or is there something unique about China that will prevent that political transformation? Such concerns relate to broader inquiries into the essence of the economic-policy transition relationship. Whatever the response is, we do need to consider what other structures, organizations, and players may be important to understand the prospects in countries such as China for significant political reforms. Whether or more accurately why China may or may not democratize is a critical issue, At the same time, one should also recognize that drastic and fundamental reform is not visible everywhere in East Asia.

China has always been one of the major influencers in Asian Politics, It is hard for any other Asian country to match China’s economic development and to match its position in the world politics today. What China chooses as a political decision is bound to have a huge impact on the world Order, given its humongous importance and significance. Be it the Decisions supported by China as a UN member having veto powers or be it a political decision that China takes about trade tariffs, it plays and will play a major role in shaping how the world politics function today.

ECONOMIC INFLUENCE

With the prevailing notion of the West globally rising and progressing in all fields be it economic or political, social or technological, the East has emerged gradually and is simultaneously rising as well. Being the largest continent in the world, Asia contributed two thirds to the whole global population in the 19th century as well as one half to the global income. Although the 20th century ushered in the era of colonization which resulted in Asia becoming the poorest continent in the world.

With the change in the political as well as economical ideologies all across the world, and the prevalence of the New Economic Policy involving liberalization, privatization and globalization, Asia saw massive economic and political changes. According to the 2016 UN data, Asia contributed to one-third of global trade, 40% of manufacturing and 30% of income generation, which was undoubtedly a stark contrast to its previous shabby economic state in the 1960s, marking a steep economic rise in various Asian nations.

With the changes in the political structures in the Asian nations and adoption of more liberal and democratic policies, the economies started to open up and become increasingly engaged in global trade and commerce, boosting their own GDPs considerably and progressing globally. An elaborate study of Asia requires it to be divided into different areas on the basis of their region. There are usually four regional divisions of Asia: East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia and West Asia. East Asia comprises eight nations namely People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan.

These East Asian nations went through significant political changes in the 20th century which resulted in liberal economic policies, and this triggered the spike in the growth of these economies, especially China, South Korea and Japan.

Being one of the fastest growing economies of the world, China’s economy has grown tremendously despite being a social market economy and controlling political influences. Thus, the public sector in China has a larger share than that of the private sector. It is considered to be the world’s largest manufacturing economy and the largest trading nation, along with having a massive increasingly growing consumer market. It actively participates in International Trade and is said to be the largest exporter and the second largest importer in the world. As per the World Bank, in 2018, Foreign Trade has contributed 38.2% of its GDP.

Exports of Products consist of (2018-Comtrade):

  • transmission apparatus for radio-telephony
  • automatic data processing machines and units
  • electronic integrated circuits and micro assemblies
  • electrical apparatus for line telephony
  • and parts and accessories for machines and vehicles

Exports of Services consist of (2016-UN Statistical Division):

  • other business services
  • travel
  • transportation
  • construction services
  • insurance services

Imports of Products consist of (2018-Comtrade):

  • electronic integrated circuits and micro assemblies
  • petroleum oils
  • iron ores
  • petroleum gas
  • motor vehicles

Imports of Services consist of (2016-UN Statistics Division):

  • transportation
  • other business services
  • royalties and license fees
  • insurance services
  • construction services

China’s primary trade partners comprise the United States of America, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Germany. Although the relations between the United States and China have become strained and the business atmosphere between the two countries have become quite uncertain. In 2019, the exports fell to 3.2% and imports fell to 8.5% with the heightening tensions between the two nations.

Overall, China has been criticized by many for its unjust practices from intellectual property theft to the biases of the Communist Party of China. It possesses several pertinent inequalities between the regions; the southeast coast has developed immensely while the interior regions of China still lag behind. Economic disparities are high and considerable differences in human resources and the industrial sector can be observed. Moreover, the rapid economic growth has also led to numerous environmental disturbances. With the recent outbreak of COVID-19 from China, it is bound to be severely adversely affected in all its sectors, be it economic or political.

As per the One Country, Two Systems policy of China, Macau and Hong Kong have the freedom to be involved in economic activities and organizations as per their will, as Macau, China and Hong Kong, China. Known for tourism and gambling, Macau’s economy has remained unstable, with the economy going deficit in 2019. Although, the GDP per capita is the third highest in the world, the unemployment rate is low and the life expectancy is the highest in Asia (83 years). It is also bound to be affected by the relations between PRC and USA along with the outbreak of COVID-19, adversely.

Hong Kong is often recognized as an international financial centre, with its neoliberal trade regimes which supports free trade. Considered to be a model of liberal economics, Hong Kong has inevitably been affected by the economic slowdown of China with the strained relations with the United States, fall in FDI and strict credit controls as well as the recent outbreak of the pandemic.

Mongolia, has also grown economically over the past few years. The GDP has tripled, literacy levels have risen, health has significantly improved and the agricultural along with mining activities have increased. Although, with harsh climatic conditions, a weak banking system and fluctuating investments, one third of the population is under below-poverty line, thereby making Mongolia, a poor country.

The fourth largest electronic producer in the world, Taiwan possesses a stable financial position. Although its economy has also been affected by the tensions between the United States and China along with the outbreak of COVID-19. Moreover, major factors behind the economic slowdown are the isolation from global ties, lack of competitiveness in the service sector, trade tensions, etc.

Being the fourth largest economic power in Asia, South Korea is known for its amazing transformation from a poor to a highly developed nation in a very short period of time. It is considered as the fifth largest exporter and the ninth largest importer of goods and service in the world. According to the World Bank, in 2018, Foreign Trade has contributed 83% of its GDP. South Korea has signed free trade agreements with numerous countries from all over the world and is contemplating whether to sign the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Exports of Products consist of (2018-Comtrade):

  • electrical equipment
  • petroleum oils
  • vehicles
  • parts of vehicles
  • ships

Exports of Services consist of (2016-UN Statistical Division):

  • transportation
  • other business services
  • travel
  • construction services
  • royalties and license fees

Imports of Products consist of (2018-Comtrade):

  • petroleum oils
  • electrical equipment
  • hydrocarbons
  • coal

Imports of Services consist of (2016-UN Statistics Division):

  • other business services
  • transportation
  • travel
  • royalties and license fees

South Korea’s primary trade partners comprises China, the United States of America, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arabia and Germany. It was considered to be one of the strongest economies, especially during the global financial crisis. Although with the recent fall of China’s economy in 2019 as well as the global COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea’s economic growth has slowed down considerably.

South Korea’s rapid economic progress has resulted in a stark decrease in poverty and unemployment along with an increase in literacy levels. However, social disparities as well as the number of irregular workers has risen. Thus, South Korea is attempting to undertake some measures and implement such policies which target the same.

On the other hand, North Korea has always remained one of the most closed off economies in the world, with very limited trade partners, primarily being China. Other trading partners comprise India, Ghana, Russia, Honduras and Peru, Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc. It exports Coal Briquettes, Molluscs, clothing like Non-knit coats, fabric, soybean oil, etc. and it imports Synthetic Filament Yarn Woven Fabric, soybean oil, coal briquettes, etc.

The third largest economy of the world, Japan is highly reliant on its exports. Thus, its economy is highly volatile and has seen various fluctuations in recent times, with a decrease in the overall economic growth rate. The unstable relations between China and the United States has also affected its exports along with business investments. Japan is said to be the fourth largest importer and exporter in the world. According to the World Bank, in 2018, Foreign Trade has contributed 36.6% of its GDP.

Exports of Products consist of (2018-Comtrade):

  • motor vehicles
  • auto parts and accessories
  • electronic integrated circuits and micro assemblies
  • machines and mechanical appliances
  • ships and boats

Exports of Services consist of (2016-UN Statistical Division):

  • royalties and license fees
  • other business services
  • transportation
  • travel
  • construction services

Imports of Products consist of (2018-Comtrade):

  • petroleum oils
  • petroleum gas and other gaseous hydrocarbons
  • transmission apparatus for radio-telephony
  • coal and similar solid fuels
  • electronic integrated circuits and micro assemblies

Imports of Services consist of (2016-UN Statistics Division):

  • other business services
  • transportation
  • travel
  • royalties and license fees
  • construction services

Japan’s primary trading partners comprise China, Hong Kong, South Korea, the United States, Australia, Thailand and Saudi Arabia. After China, Japan is EU’s second largest trading partner, with the Economic Partnership Agreement signed between Japan and the European Union in 2019. Being a country with the highest number of population and a low unemployment rate, Japan struggles to divert its finances to health care and pensions. Moreover, due to the decline of the population in general, the number of tax-payers are also falling, thereby an economic burden is felt by the country.

With the massive outbreak of COVID-19 all over the world, resulting in a global health crisis, all of the economies are bound to be majorly impacted. Some sources suggest how the impact might be as bad as the financial crisis of Asia experienced at the end of 1990s or even worse than that. Although, the economies are more prepared than they were decades ago and would be able to handle the economic impact better. It is expected that a proper slowdown or recession in the economies will take place after the pandemic as all the activities have halted as of now.

Many verified institutions and organizations like World Bank, Asian Development Bank, International Monetary Fund, etc. have been estimating the economic impact of various nations, the change in their policies, their GDP rate after the pandemic and the like. The IMF World Economic Outlook consists of a detailed outlook on numerous nations and it not only estimates the decrease in the GDP of all the nations but also contains the projected growth rates of 2020 and 2021.

Almost all of the East Asian nations are predicted to have declining growth rates, some going negative as well. Although by 2021, it is estimated to positively grow again. Among these nations, China would be heavily affected, not only economically, including trade and commerce, but also politically, relations with the rest of the world, as well as in a humanitarian way, loss of human resources.

SOCIAL INFLUENCE

When we talk about East Asia’s growing global influence, we cannot ignore the kind of social impact it has created and continues to create. By using the term “social influence”, we simply mean how the culture, the lifestyle of the East Asian countries has altered the social pattern and the social map of the entire world.

Today, actress Zhang Ziyi, basketball player Yao Ming and artist Zhang Xiaogang are global figures, something we wouldn’t have imagined 20 or say 30 years ago. There are a lot of instances that show the impact these countries are creating across different countries.

China’s Confucius Institute project, run by the Ministry of Education, helps set up Chinese language and culture studies programs at universities around the world. The fact that “about 840 million Chinese speak Mandarin as their first language, whereas only 375 million people worldwide speak English as first language” is a statement sufficient in itself. This definitely doesn’t mean that the dominance of English as a global language will be adversely affected but it won’t be wrong to say that it is at least being challenged.

Hallyu was a term which was introduced in 1999 to the world and meant the popularity of Korean culture through movies, music, fashion, food, hairstyles and other factors. 

One of the major components of influence has to be K-Pop, which is nothing but a genre of popular music that originated in South Korea. Few years ago, very few people knew about this music, but today it has become a very big phenomena and a mad business especially among the youth of the nations. But then what we need to think is that what led to this sudden popularity of a type of music that has been in existence for years. The answer is simple- technological advancement has played a key role. And interestingly in the process of “the world becoming one nation”, an artist named Psy released his track called “Gangnam Style” that got 800 million views on YouTube. The song became the favorite anthem in a lot of countries and so the love and demand for K-pop rose. 

One of the most important reasons South Korean pop music industry has garnered so much love across the world is because of how it infuses many international styles and genres resulting in availability of diversified music to the fans.  There seems to be no escaping of the Korean culture these days. Western beauty stores like Sephora and Ulta now house a specific section for Korean skincare and makeup products, and Netflix frequently features multiple K-Dramas and movies.

We all know that the economic strength of a nation is directly proportional to the ability of the nation to propagate its culture as we have clearly seen in the case of United States of America. With the help of movies and TV series, Korean culture has spread throughout the world and continues to do so due to the increasing strength of the nation’s economy and finance. 

Korean TV shows and drama have also influenced people’s way of living and thinking because these shows and movies affect the perspectives through which an individual looks at the world. Since the girls in the drama series are frequently using a lot of fashion brands or the boys are seen using really expensive cars, it shows that Korean lifestyle advocates luxury and a money worship sort of approach which has been successful in influencing people in adopting that sort of lifestyle.

Apart from China and South Korea excelling in using its soft power, Japan is next in line.

The Japanese culture is considered trendy and cool by young people throughout the world, a perception that the Japanese government is encouraging through its “Cool Japan” initiative and also many video games and anime are popular Japanese exports among young populationthroughout Asia and the United States.

Talking about our own country today, Manga, a Japanese comic art form, and anime have gained popularity in India. Many young Indians have developed an interest in manga because it offers a cultural outlet for geeks. Since mainstream Indian pop-culture and Bollywood generally do not cater to geeks or feature geeky themes, it has led to an exponential growth of interest in Japanese pop-culture in India.

Apart from this, popularity of Sushi, a Japanese dish, speaks volume in itself. Today there are hardly any areas which are unaware about the existence of this dish. In the 21st century, consumption of sushi is not just trying a different cuisine but a sign of prestige for the Non-Japanese people.

Japan has taken over the field of fashion as well in the past few years and has becomea great influencers in people’s way of dressing in the current times. Tokyo has emerged as a design capital, and Japanese designers are sharing fashion headlines with trendsetters in Paris, Milan and New York. More established talents such as Hanae Mori and Kenzo have been joined by newer figures like Yohji Yamamoto, Kansai Yamamoto, Mitsuhiro Matsuda and ReiKawakubo of Comme des Garcons.

There is no doubt in the fact that these countries have successfully developed trends and changed the social outlook in the past few years. As mentioned before, what we are trying to convey is that somewhere if our music habits, our taste preferences, our language preferences, our fashion sense,  our way of living , our understanding of the world or our understanding of  family has changed andthat is simply because we have more options to choose from than what we had maybe 30 or 40 years ago. This is simply a product of globalization. One need not fear this change and this growing influence of East Asian countries instead see this as a great opportunity and a medium of cultural exchange and make the best use out of it.

FUTURE PROPSPECTS

It is very clear that the East Asian countries haven’t been able to establish their hegemony in terms of soft power like USA, but it is also very clear that the process has started somewhere. It is just a matter of time before people in large numbers will be greatly influenced by the culture, the art of these countries. Definitely, Covid-19 might impose some sort of restrictions, but it is highly doubtful that it will prove to be a disadvantage in the spread of the culture since the main medium of its popularity is internet. Given the times, it is believed that the East Asian culture will only become more popular due to the expansive use of internet and different forms of social media. Inorder to conclude, it is safe to say that even though the journey for East Asian countries to enjoy global dominance is quite a long one, the process has already begun.

SECURITY/ MILITARY INFLUENCE

East Asia is a region where relationships between the states have been through waves of ebb and flows, having faced several skirmishes. It consists of two states which are equipped with Nuclear weapons, and one of the states which is being viewed as one of the biggest threats to the present world order established by the United States of America. Post-cold war, US had played an important role in the structuring of the East Asian region[vi]. It had influenced development in sectors like the open markets, security and the stability etc. of its alliances like South Korea and Japan. Soon enough some countries in the region, having witnessed a prosperous economic situation, began on the journey of modernizing their military and security sectors.

  1. China stood out the most in its strategic modernization, and over the past few years has managed to incorporate its advanced technology with its security strategy. In recent years, China’s leaders elevated this initiative, known as Civil-Military Integration (CMI), to a national strategy that incentivizes the civilian sector to enter the defense market. The national CMI strategy focuses on hardware modernization, education, personnel, investment, infrastructure, and logistics[vii]. The country has plans of introducing the world to the first completely surveillance governed state; with the help of a revolutionary technology called Artificial Intelligence. This method of governing is being claimed by the state to provide more domestic stability and peace, and further promote internal security. The main role when it comes to the security architecture of the region is without a doubt being played by China. China’s role has been the strongest in the region to have envisioned a change in world order by eventually influencing the institutions and ideas which float around in the system. Although some scholars believe that China’s wish to bring a new world order would not be the cliché understanding of influence. Rather, it would be defined by a degree of deference that those within China’s sphere of influence are willing to offer to Beijing[viii]. In October 2017, in the 19th Party congress Xi Jinping mentioned in a speech about the ‘new era’ and envisions a long- term contingency plan to rewrite the new order. Within almost four decades the leaders of the country managed to transform the country from a marginal player in the global affairs, into a world’s second largest defence spender, in addition to being the largest trading nation, second largest economy. China has been involved in the geopolitics of region like middle east and is known for its arms sale to the gulf.

However, China’s is seen as posing a big threat to the world order through its ‘One Belt One Road initiative’. Through this, the pentagon claims that China will try to influence the countries, by asserting that its military personnel need to be stationed there for assuring the safety of the project. And through this, it (pentagon) believes, it (China) will be able to establish multiple military stations around the world. In addition to this, China might also pursue this vision through its debt-trap policy.[ix] At present it only has one international military base, which is in Djibouti; and interestingly enough, Djibouti owes more than 80% of its GDP to China. Similarly, China’s Cyber warfare tactic has also been seen as a major security threat in the global sphere. In the area of Space also, China has been providing financial and launching capabilities, which also shows it spreading it sphere of influence in the outer space arena.

  1. The Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, since 2012 has been working on reforming the Japanese Military. It was noticed that he even had tried to renounce Article 9 of the constitution which restricted Japan’s ability to wage war. This however has not yet taken place and additionally also faced discontent from the public, who prefers Japan’s pacifist stance. Additionally, for decades Japanese arms contractors used to manufacture arms for Japan only. However, by 2014 the country saw policy changes and witnessed the lifting up of these restrictions. This change in strategy comes from its viewing of China’s as a regional threat and wanting to restrict its power particularly in regions like the South China sea and East China sea etc. In addition to all this China and North Korea having nuclear weapons is also a big looming threat for instability in the region. China’s military gains have led to the continuation of the military reforms in Japan. Japan has been trying to improve its position by providing military aid to foreign countries, through its Official Development Assistance (ODA) program which aims to build Japanese influence and ties. This forging of new military relations is a part of “pro- active pacifism”. In addition, to this it is also using its military or the Self- Defence forces (SDF), as an instrument of foreign policy, including by interventions in natural disaster. For example, in 2013 it dispatched personnel to the Philippines.

III. South Korea has recently witnessed a sudden influence of its position in the global market. Over the past couple of years South Korea has been hegemonizing the world with its soft power in the entertainment industry. In the context of hard power, South Korea’s is taking up reforms to keep up its military edge despite the various challenges it faces, like the non-compliance of North Korea for agreeing to De-nuclearize or the failed CBM’s which it has tried having with it. In addition to this, it is the strongest ally that US has in the region, and fall under its (United States) nuclear umbrella. On the other hand, North Korea has the world’s largest conventional military force. It has been seen as a grave security threat in the world because of its missile and nuclear tests, and its unwillingness to comply by international treaties and laws. It spends about a quarter of its GDP on its defence expenditure, while at the same time being among the poorest nations in the world, economically[x]. It is guided by the principles of self -reliance and military first politics. The country is known to be in a missile relationship with Iran. This relationship was threatening to the extent that US had taken the risky stance of disturbing the already problematic relations with Iran and put sanctions on it from receiving any material from Pyongyang. It has also been known to have similar relationships with other gulf states as well. And this has always perturbed USA, for reasons that involve Iran borrowing things like blueprints, testing data, centrifuges etc. for making its own nuclear weapons.

IV.The other East Asian countries, namely Hong Kong and Macau, have garrison armies run by the Chinese government. They are known as the People’s Liberation Army Hong Kong garrison and The People’s Liberation Army Macao Garrison. Taiwan which has its own military is still week compared to countries like China. It has particularly been facing challenges in this realm more because of a shortage of personnel[xi]. Over the past few years, it had transitioned from conscription to an all voluntary military, and it is claimed that the transition was ill executed. In addition to all this, the biggest issue it faces is of recognition; only 14 countries and Vatican recognize it. Mongolia also keeps a pacifist stance, and prefers to keep diplomatic ties with both strong powers like China and Russia.

Thus, while many of these countries in East Asia have some or the other domain, where they have a growing global influence, the security and military domain are still a little behind. China evidently stands at the top of this chart, with being a strong competitor to US and Russia in arms race, in addition to being in a technological or an Artificial Intelligence race as well. Several of its initiatives, as claimed by some organizations, has a hidden military agenda attached to it, the biggest example being the One Belt One Road initiative. Furthermore, China is currently the biggest exporter of arms, while also being the third largest importer of it. Russia has been accounted for having majority of these imports in 2018 from China[xii].  China is also involved in the African continent with its military presence there for counter-terrorism and humanitarian operations. Their African program is modelled on military-to-military engagement. They also have an active participation in Latin America. Thus, China’s has followed a very strategic method of maintaining its presence in these regions, in an all economic-political-military stance. These regions thus have a higher chance of sensing China’s creeping influence in the security domain the first. However, while China has managed to strategically get some states to economically depend on it (through its debt trap policy), USA still has a strong militaristic hold on the world order. One thing which China has definitely influenced, mainly in the neighbouring as well as the big powers, is the threat perception of a military attack. China’s transition to an offensive strategy, along with heavy imports of weapons, has influenced the culture of arms race within the region as well as among its surrounding nations. South Korea, Japan have heavily been motivated in the modernization of their security sector more so because of this culture of threat. Its nuclear arsenal along with technological advancement has been keeping countries on their toes, influencing an international order where states must always be ready, even if they have a defensive military stance. And while China has managed to keep good relations with many countries, its acts of Cyber warfare, or plans for militarization of South China Sea, has always had states being suspicious of its strategies.

FUTURE PROSPECTS

As is evident from the above information, East Asia still has a long way to go, when it comes to having a large influence in the security or the military domain globally. Having said that, as mentioned above, China is the closest to this vision. China has for a long time envisioned a change in the present world order. And for China, it eventually takes place when a particular country has enough influence over the majority of the other nations in the world, and these nations then follow or strategically incorporate the ideas, institutions of that particular country. The future as of yet can go either way. The present wave of COVID-19 pandemic has created a lot of uncertainty in the international system. With the global lockdowns, countries would have to face terrible economic losses, these losses would impact majority of the sectors of the society, including the military sector. However, China and South Korea are said to have managed the virus with well-planned out initiatives, although South Korea is witnessing a second wave, having lifted the lockdown earlier last month. Although, what’s important to note here is that China over the decades has sought out long term plans and has taken its time to very carefully plan out its strategies. Even presently, the country is seen taking benefit of the vulnerabilities of the surrounding nations by doing military exercises in the South China Sea, in addition to this the PLA aircraft has been seen to have flown close to Taiwan at least six times, or when , in March South Korea noticed a Chinese Y-9 surveillance aircraft trespassed into the Korean ADIZ Thus, there are chances that, because of the current situation- its vision might witness a delay, but they have a good possibility of getting back on track[xiii].   According to some sources, China is planning to make sales of arms much easier than US, both in providing with a more reasonable prices, and also willing to provide important technologies. It is also likely that its method of Civil-military combined method of a surveillance state governing might also be welcomed by states as model to be followed; since many scholars claim this method to be establishing a cemented totalitarian or authoritarian state. Other East Asian Countries like South Korea and Japan can witness more improvements in their military and security architecture, albeit, chances are high for the two to continue having strong soft powers and influencing the global arena with that, which also play an important role in the world order. Yet, one can’t completely ignore the USA in this stance, while overtime its strategic decisions have not been in level with its previous ones, it is going to be a difficult task to overthrow or overlap its influence specially in the military and security area, without facing some stiff competition.         

CONCLUSION

History tells us that the road to democracy is not pre-determined, nor is it determined by the level of socio-economic development. For a foreseeable period of time, today’s diversity in political systems will continue in East Asia, with the whole range of regime types, from liberal democracy to Communist one-party systems. We may however remain optimistic that even if they encounter difficulties in developing into basic or fuller democracies, East Asian political systems will not deteriorate into more authoritarian ones, except perhaps in the not-very-likely case of insurmountable economic difficulties.[xiv] Observable from the above-mentioned information is the fact that Asia’s political influence has been increasing with the transition in the politics of various states. Future of East Asian Politics will largely depend on the state actors and their policy decisions. The increase in Japanese soft power and the economic development of South Korea and Taiwan and their transformation into full-fledged democracies, tells a lot about the important roles they’d play in the global politics in the times to come. The future of China, largely, depends on the questions raised in this paper, as to whether China decides to remain non-democratic or chooses to democratize its economy, because if it does, it’d be interesting to know what the world order would perhaps transition into. Post Covid-19, it’d also be interesting to see if China and the East Asia emerge as another important centre of global political power, and whether the world continues to remain unipolar or that a major transition of power is awaiting us.

Asia has undoubtedly been one of the fastest progressing continents after the end of the Second World War as well as the decline of colonialism. With more emphasis on economic growth and attaining self-reliance, Asia has become highly economically developed. The rate of development in the East Asian nations has been increasingly considerably, especially in countries like South Korea, China, Hong Kong and Japan. With the increasing adoption of liberal political ideologies, these nations also implemented new liberal economic policies, which resulted in the establishment of mutually beneficial trade and commerce relations with all of the nations across the world.  This helped in bridging the gap between the East and the West as well as helped the developing nations progress immensely and ultimately become a significant participant in global trade. Along with establishing economic ties, the East Asian nations also became a part of regional and international forums, which led to various advantageous agreements and strategies, solving conflicts and ultimately resulting in the economic growth and development of these countries. The future of these economies and the impact they would have on a global level post Covid-19 seems very daunting. China, known as ‘the market of markets’, is severely going to affect numerous nations, with strained economic and political ties. Its impact will also be felt among the East Asian nations and is expected to bring a cascading effect on numerous economies all across the world.

In the military and security domain the region has witnessed a relatively slower pace as compared to the booming influence in economic, political and social sectors. Among the countries in the region, China has managed to gain the most recognition in this area. It is currently the largest exporter of arms in the world. In addition to this, it’s One belt One Road (OBOR) initiative has been claimed for having undertones of a militaristic agenda. The other countries like Japan, South Korea or Mongolia have also been modernizing their military and security strategies, however, their stance is more pacifist and defensive.The future might see the region witnessing more developments in this area, particularly in China. With the OBOR, China might be able to have more military bases in the world for providing security of the project. Other countries in the region might also witness further modernization of their arsenals and strategies, but have a stronger chance of having a stronger influence in other sectors. China’s long-term strategies have worked in the past, and chances are they might work for them in their vision of gaining influence through its militaristic strategies which have heavily been incorporating the technological advances.  Post- COVID the situation can go either way, since the whole world will be facing a down turn of their economic spheres, this would clearly also hamper the spending on military and security. However, since majority of the big competing states including China, have been pursuing an offensive strategy, this sector might not witness much drastic change. As is evident from China’s playingon the vulnerability of other nations during the Pandemic.

Well it is very clear that the East Asian countries haven’t been able to establish their hegemony in terms of soft power like USA, but it is also very clear that the process has started somewhere. It is just a matter of time when people in large numbers will be greatly influenced by the culture, the art of these countries. Definitely, Covid-19 might impose some sort of restrictions but it is highly doubtful that it will prove to be a disadvantage in the spread of the culture since the main medium of its popularity is internet. Given the times, it is believed that the East Asian culture will only become more popular due to the expansive use of internet and different forms of social media. In order to conclude, it is safe to say that even though the journey for East Asian countries to enjoy global dominance is quite a long one, the process has already begun.

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